A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses     

Pierre Ribereau  Philippe NaveauArmelle Guillou 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(10):1215-1221

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.  相似文献   

阿尔金断裂西段首期GPS观测资料处理及初步结果     

库稳飞  何建坤  王卫民  卢双疆  夏文海  Philippe Vernant 《地球物理学进展》2011,26(2):511-518

本文介绍了中国科学院青藏高原研究所在阿尔金断裂西段进行GPS观测的剖面布设和首期观测情况.利用GAMIT/GLOBK软件对首期观测数据进行了处理,并将结果归算到区域参考框架下.GAMIT计算得到的"准观测值"均满足所须精度,其中单天解标准化均方差小于0.3,基线的平均相对精度为1.8×10-9.GLOBK在区域参考框架...  相似文献   

Generation mechanisms for mesoscale eddies in the Gulf of Lions: radar observation and modeling   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Amandine Schaeffer  Anne Molcard  Philippe Forget  Philippe Fraunié  Pierre Garreau 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(10):1587-1609

Coastal mesoscale eddies were evidenced during a high-frequency radar campaign in the Gulf of Lions (GoL), northwestern Mediterranean Sea, from June 2005 to January 2007. These anticyclonic eddies are characterized by repeated and intermittent occurrences as well as variable lifetime. This paper aims at studying the link between these new surface observations with similar structures suggested at depth by traditional acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and investigates the eddy generation and driving mechanisms by means of an academic numerical study. The influence of the wind forcing on the GoL circulation and the eddy generation is analyzed, using a number of idealized configurations in order to investigate the interaction with river discharge, buoyancy, and bathymetric effects. The wind forcing is shown to be crucial for two different generation mechanisms: A strong northerly offshore wind (Mistral) generates a vortex column due to the bathymetric constraint of a geostrophic barotropic current, which can surface after the wind relaxes; a southerly onshore wind generates a freshwater bulge from the Rhône river discharge, which detaches from the coast and forms a well-defined surface anticyclonic eddy based on buoyancy gradients. These structures are expected to have important consequences in terms of dispersion or retention of biogeochemical material at local scales.  相似文献   

The ECORS-Truc Vert’08 nearshore field experiment: presentation of a three-dimensional morphologic system in a macro-tidal environment during consecutive extreme storm conditions     

Nadia Senechal  Stéphane Abadie  Edith Gallagher  Jamie MacMahan  Gerd Masselink  Hervé Michallet  Ad Reniers  Gerben Ruessink  Paul Russell  Damien Sous  Ian Turner  Fabrice Ardhuin  Philippe Bonneton  Stéphane Bujan  Sylvain Capo  Raphael Certain  Rodrigo Pedreros  Thierry Garlan 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(12):2073-2098

A large multi-institutional nearshore field experiment was conducted at Truc Vert, on the Atlantic coast of France in early 2008. Truc Vert’08 was designed to measure beach change on a long, sandy stretch of coast without engineering works with emphasis on large winter waves (offshore significant wave height up to 8 m), a three-dimensional morphology, and macro-tidal conditions. Nearshore wave transformation, circulation and bathymetric changes involve coupled processes at many spatial and temporal scales thus implying the need to improve our knowledge for the full spectrum of scales to achieve a comprehensive view of the natural system. This experiment is unique when compared with existing experiments because of the simultaneous investigation of processes at different scales, both spatially (from ripples to sand banks) and temporally (from single swash events to several spring-neap tidal cycles, including a major storm event). The purpose of this paper is to provide background information on the experiment by providing detailed presentation of the instrument layout and snapshots of preliminary results.  相似文献   

A set-membership approach for high integrity height-aided satellite positioning   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vincent Drevelle  Philippe Bonnifait 《GPS Solutions》2011,15(4):357-368

A Robust Set-Inversion via Interval Analysis method in a bounded-error framework is used to compute three-dimensional location zones in real time, at a given confidence level. This approach differs significantly from the usual Gaussian error model paradigm, since the satellite positions and the pseudorange measurements are represented by intervals encompassing the true value with a particular level of confidence. The method computes a location zone recursively, using contractions and bisections of an arbitrarily large initial location box. Such an approach can also handle an arbitrary number of erroneous measurements using a q-relaxed solver and allows the integration of geographic and cartographic information such as digital elevation models or three-dimensional maps. With enough data redundancy, inconsistent measurements can be detected and even rejected. The integrity risk of the location zone comes only from the measurement bounds settings, since the solver is guaranteed. A method for setting these bounds for a particular location zone confidence level is proposed. An experimental validation using real L1 code measurements and a digital elevation model is also reported in order to illustrate the performance of the method on real data.  相似文献   

Integrating hydropower and intermittent climate‐related renewable energies: a call for hydrology          下载免费PDF全文

B. François  M. Borga  S. Anquetin  J. D. Creutin  K. Engeland  A. C. Favre  B. Hingray  M. H. Ramos  D. Raynaud  B. Renard  E. Sauquet  J. F. Sauterleute  J. P. Vidal  G. Warland 《水文研究》2014,28(21):5465-5468

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Regional mesoscale air–sea coupling impacts and extreme meteorological events role on the Mediterranean Sea water budget     

Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier  Sophie Bastin  Karine Béranger  Philippe Drobinski 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(3-4):1029-1051

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Internal erosion in granular media: direct numerical simulations and energy interpretation          下载免费PDF全文

Luc Sibille  Franck Lominé  Philippe Poullain  Yacine Sail  Didier Marot 《水文研究》2015,29(9):2149-2163

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Modeling defects and plasticity in MgSiO3 post-perovskite: Part 1—generalized stacking faults     

Alexandra M. Goryaeva  Philippe Carrez  Patrick Cordier 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2015,42(10):781-792

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An adaptive finite element model for wellbore breakout simulation     

Diogo L. Cecílio  Philippe R. B. Devloo  Sônia M. Gomes  Erick S.R. Santos 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(4):814-828

A finite element formulation is proposed and implemented for analysing the stability of excavated wells using the DiMaggio-Sandler constitutive elastoplastic model with a typical carbonate reservoir configuration. The quality of the finite element approximation is ensured by applying smooth curved elements adapted to the wellbore geometry, and h − p adaptive finite element meshes in the plastic zone. General purpose procedures are defined to transfer the elastoplastic deformation history to newly created integration points. A breakout damage criterion is proposed based on the second invariant of the deviatoric plastic deformation tensor. This damage criterion is used to apply a mesh movement algorithm to represent material collapse. The automatic successive application of the breakout damage criterion results in elliptical realistically looking geometries obtained in experiments reported in the literature.  相似文献